Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Bhagyanagar Metals

The last time I told someone about this stock, he quirked a remark - "Yeh stock lo, aur Bhagya pe chod do" ("Buy this stock, and leave it to destiny"; bhagya in hindi means destiny). As destiny would have had it, this is one stock which can fit the Graham radar. Please explore the enclosed stats -
Share capital - 6.3 crs
Loans - 14.47 crs
Investments - 1.6 crs
Net CA - 70.13 crs (22.2 rupees per share)
FV per share - 2.00 rupees
Dividend per share - 0.5 rupees
CMP = 30.20 rupees

Observations -
1. NCAV (Net Current Asset Value, net of all debt) comes to 17.66 rupees per share (0.56 times of CMP)
2. Dividend payouts for last 5 years (avg payout being 15%) have been good. The cash available is 2.71 per share so another payout of 0.5 rupees is defintely on (maybe more).
3. Debt recapitalisation (on an interest coverage of 4) is a cool 67.4 crs. The m-cap is 108 crs which makes me very comfortable.
4. The company works on a P/E ratio of 3.51
5. Growing sales and profits for last 3 years.

Some things to look out for - 1. The company is trying to work on a restructuring plan - a possible demerger; 2. Promoters are buying shares - a possible buy-back; 3. The quaterly results over the last one year have many an ups and downs - ???

I would suggest a buy for this stock. And be vary of the news on demerger, this may create opportunities in the pricing and valuation of the business.

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