The following text is an adaptation of a 1981 Science paper, “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice” where Tversky and Kahneman presented a glorious example which delve in the psychology of making a rational decision among seemingly-diverse options.
Imagine the Avian flu disease has now been discovered in Sri Lanka and is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed.
1. Under Program A, a projected 200 people will be saved.
2. Under Program B, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that no one will be saved.
Which one will you go in for - Program A or B?
The researchers then restated the problem: this time, with -
1. Program C, “400 people will die”
2. Program D, “there is a one-third probability that no one will die, and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.”
Now, which one will you go in for - Program C or D?
PS: The authors observations are given in the comments. Please have your answer ready before peeking through the comments
Friday, March 24, 2006
The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
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