AVP

Alien v/s Predator is a Hollywood flick where a team of archeologist discover an Aztec temple under the Antarctic circle, housing a host of alien creatures .. none better than the Alien family and that of the Predator lineage. Only one will win.

A similar comparison can be made in IT stocks .. the biggies .. esp. after the wonderful guidance given by Infosys Technologies Ltd. a couple of days back. I put four IT companies to the test - Infosys Technologies, Satyam Computers, TCS and Wipro. All the above companies have a m-cap of over INR 25,000 crores and have over INR 750 crores of LY profits. All carry virtually zero debt in their balance sheets, are cash-rich businesses and have strong management. And yet there are a number of differences which can be analysed and exploited -

1. Growth in profits has been rather different for all 4 companies. I find that TCS has shown the fastest growth in profits over LY at 42%, while Infosys has been the slowest with only 16% growth. (Satyam - 20%; Wipro - 31%)

2. CMP/NCAV would mean the "margin of safety" that Graham has so often cited in his many illustrations. The ideal number is 0.66. However this number is more true for old economy businesses and not for new sector business like IT services. For the record, Satyam is the best here with 8.66, while TCS has 37.79. (Wipro - 19.73; Infosys - 21.95; NCAV includes investments too)

3. At current prices, I estimate the fwdPE of all four companies at - Satyam - 27.91; Infosys - 37.38; Wipro - 37.81; TCS - 33.31

4. Cash per share - Satyam is at #1 with 75 rupees/share while Infosys is #2 with 54 rupees/share

5. While the dividend yeild of all 4 players is below 1%, Wipro is the best of the lot with a 0.96% dividend. Infosys however just pips Wipro with the special dividend of 30 rupees/share declared recently.

Examining these numbers, I feel Satyam is a good buy at the current price. There is an expectation of a bonus issue from Satyam aswell or a big dividend (it has crazy amounts of cash and is not eyeing any acquisitions).

PS: The movie was pathetic !!!!